Definition
Delivery forecast
A delivery forecast projects when work will actually finish, based on the team's observed throughput rather than a wished-for deadline. Instead of asking everyone to re-estimate, it fits a trend to the remaining-scope trajectory and extrapolates the completion date — and says so honestly when the data won't support a projection.
Key takeaways
- A delivery forecast projects a completion date from observed throughput, not from a wished-for deadline.
- It fits a trend to the remaining-scope series and extrapolates where the work reaches zero.
- An honest forecast returns 'no trend' or 'insufficient data' rather than fabricating a date.
- Planoda surfaces a least-squares forecast on cycles and insights with an at-risk verdict against the deadline.
The classic failure of date-setting is that it's an act of optimism: a deadline is chosen, then defended. A forecast inverts that. It looks at how scope has actually been burning down — the real remaining-work series from a cycle or project — fits a line to it, and reads off where that line crosses zero. The output is a projected completion date and a verdict on whether the team is on track to hit its target.
An honest forecast refuses to lie. If the trend is flat or rising (scope isn't shrinking), or there are too few data points, it returns 'no trend' or 'insufficient data' rather than fabricating a confident date. The next step beyond a single projected line is a probabilistic band — a Monte Carlo over the throughput distribution that yields a P50–P85 range instead of one number.
Planoda computes a least-squares delivery forecast from the live burndown series and surfaces it on the cycle and insights views, with an at-risk verdict against the cycle's end date — no re-estimation required.
Related terms
- VelocityVelocity is the average amount of work a team completes per cycle, measured in issues or story points. By tracking it over several cycles, teams forecast how much they can realistically take on next. Velocity is a planning aid for a specific team over time — never a target to maximize or a way to compare teams against each other.
- Cycle (Sprint)A cycle — often called a sprint — is a fixed, repeating time-box, usually one or two weeks, during which a team commits to a focused set of work and aims to finish it. Cycles create a regular cadence for planning, focus, and review, turning an open-ended backlog into shippable increments.
- ThroughputThroughput is the number of work items a team completes in a given period — issues finished per week, for example. It is the simplest flow metric: a direct count of output over time. Tracked across periods, throughput reveals a team's real delivery capacity and is the basis for probabilistic, estimate-free forecasting.