How does the forecaster project a delivery date?

It divides your remaining backlog by your average velocity per cycle to get cycles-to-complete, then multiplies by your cycle length to land a calendar date. A variance band widens that into optimistic, likely, and pessimistic dates — the spikier your delivery, the wider the band.

Should I use story points or issue counts?

Either — pick whatever your team already tracks. Just make sure your velocity and your backlog are measured in the same unit. Points capture effort better for mixed-size work; issue counts are simpler when your issues are roughly uniform.

Is this a guarantee of when we'll ship?

No. It's a modeled estimate from a simple ±variance band, not a Monte-Carlo simulation or a promise. Real delivery depends on scope changes, dependencies, and capacity. Use it as a planning sanity-check, then track actuals in Planoda.

How does Planoda help with this?

Planoda measures your real velocity per cycle automatically and projects delivery dates and burndown for you — no spreadsheet, no manual chart. Cycles, backlog, and velocity all live in one schema, so the forecast updates as work moves.

Free tool

When will your backlog ship?

Dial in your velocity, backlog, and cycle length — we'll forecast a likely delivery date plus an honest optimistic/pessimistic band and a burndown projection.

Measure velocity in

Story pointsIssue count

Average velocity per cycle

points/cycle

Backlog remaining

points

Cycle length

days

Delivery variance

% spiky

Variance widens the optimistic/pessimistic band around the likely date — a steady team runs near 10–20%, a spiky one 40%+. This is a modeled estimate from a simple ±variance band, not a guarantee.

Likely delivery

—

~5 cycles · 70 days from today

Optimistic

—

4 cycles

Pessimistic

—

6.7 cycles

Projected burndown

Planoda tracks real velocity per cycle and projects delivery dates for you — no spreadsheet, no manual burndown.

Start free See how cycles work

In short

Cycles-to-complete = backlog ÷ average velocity per cycle; the calendar date = cycles × cycle length from today.
A variance band turns one date into optimistic / likely / pessimistic — spikier delivery widens the band.
It's a modeled estimate, not a guarantee; Planoda tracks real velocity per cycle and projects delivery for you.

FAQ

Forecasting questions

More about forecasting delivery from velocity.

Ready to ship?

Stop guessing your delivery date.

Planoda measures velocity per cycle and projects delivery dates and burndown automatically — the forecast you just modeled, kept live.

Start free See how cycles work